After years of soaring valuations, a painful 2021 market correction and a recent surge in AI investment, venture capital is again gaining momentum. Indeed, according to the Canadian Venture Capital and Private Equity Association (CVCA), VC investment in this country rose 17 per cent year-over-year to $2.7 billion in the first half of 2026. Global venture funding, meanwhile, is on track for one of its strongest years on record, KPMG reports, reaching US$728.3 billion through the first nine months of the year.
But not all companies are sharing equally in the enthusiasm. The growth-at-all-costs mentality that characterized the market leading up to 2021 has largely given way to a more selective approach evidenced by a widespread decrease in the number of deals. The CVCA, for instance, reported a nine per cent drop in deal volume during the first half of 2026. At the same time, the AI boom has pushed valuations for some early-stage companies to extraordinary heights, even as others struggle to attract capital on comparable terms.
Here, Canadian Family Offices sits down with Maria Pacella, managing partner of Pender Ventures in Vancouver, to discuss where she sees opportunities emerging, how AI is changing the venture landscape, and what family offices should look for when choosing investments and managers.
The venture market has gone through significant changes over the past few years. What has changed most fundamentally in how investors evaluate companies once product-market fit has been reached?
Pacella: The question now is: what is the difference between growth and high-quality durable growth? Against the backdrop of AI, investors need to consider whether that growth can be repeated at scale. They also need to understand whether the company will have pricing power and the ability to replicate its use case.
There are meaningful problems AI is already ready to address, and those efficiencies can create room for breakthrough innovation over time.
With AI, software can be built faster and more cheaply, so in theory companies can be more capital efficient. But if everyone can do that, it becomes less of a durable, long-term advantage. The real question for us as investors is what creates durable value.
Where are you seeing the most compelling opportunities for venture investors?
Pacella: I am excited about the next phase of AI. We are currently seeing a significant infrastructure build-out, with investment flowing into the labs and models as well as the security and privacy needed around them. Ultimately, however, the way AI affects businesses and individuals will be very specific to certain verticals.
I think about more traditional industries, like healthcare and the industrial sector. The impact AI can have in these areas and the durable economic value it can create could be significant. And these businesses have proprietary data and deep workflow knowledge, particularly where strong customer relationships can add to what AI is able to accelerate.
Healthcare is a good example. There can be breakthrough innovation in diagnostics and new therapies, but there are also immediate opportunities to improve productivity and get more out of existing systems and processes that have not changed for a long time. There are meaningful problems AI is already ready to address, and those efficiencies can create room for breakthrough innovation over time.
Many family offices have long investment horizons. How should they think about venture investing compared with more traditional asset classes?
Pacella: I think a long investment horizon is an advantage because venture capital is a long-term asset class. Companies are not built and sold overnight. The best companies can take years to build and then additional time for investors to realize the value. Some of the most interesting companies are also built during chaotic periods, which I believe we are in now.
The question should not be about short-term performance. There are other things investors can do in the public markets when they are focused on the short term. In venture, the question is where these massive technological shifts will create economic value over a long period of time, potentially a decade or more.
What should family offices look for when evaluating venture managers?
Pacella: I would look for managers with a long track record of building companies and the endurance to support them over the long term, rather than managers focused on the flavour of the month. That flavour of the month is defence right now, for example.
Family offices should look at how a manager sources opportunities and whether that approach is unique. It is also worth considering how the manager has moved through multiple market cycles. The question is whether the team remained disciplined and was willing to be contrarian or tended to follow the herd.
It is also important to look at portfolio discipline: how quickly is capital allocated, and is capital reserved for follow-on investments? I would consider not only the return track record, but also how disciplined and patient the manager was throughout that period.
This story was created by Canadian Family Offices’ commercial content division on behalf of PenderFund Capital Management, which is a member and content provider of this publication.