Canada’s commercial real estate market sizzled last year, and the momentum doesn’t appear to be slowing down in 2022. High-net-worth investors have certainly joined the party while staying true to their overall strategic investment strategies, according to wealth advisors at a number of Canadian family offices.
Investors have been targeting opportunities in industrial and multifamily categories as well as industrial, commercial and investment (ICI) assets, primarily in Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal. Last month, CBRE forecast that commercial real-estate investment volumes could hit an all-time high of $58.5 billion this year, building off last year’s record $57.9 billion.
How are well-to-do families investing in the market?
Mark Fieder, president at Avison Young Canada, which works with family offices across the country and globally, says the way investors approach opportunities depends very much on how the family office is structured.
“Some are looking at capital appreciation versus yield and return. It really just depends on the needs of the family office,” he says. He’s seeing approaches that are “fairly disciplined and cautious,” with investors sticking to their plans and with some more bullish on real estate than others.
Still, the majority of family investors tend to favour an indirect approach, Isaacs says, through a combination of public and private strategies, with more emphasis on private opportunities. Private funds “tend to have a lock-up period that gives the management team time to implement a longer-term strategy without managing day-to-day short-term expectations.”
Tina Tehranchian, senior wealth advisor and certified financial planner with Assante Capital Management Ltd., is seeing an appetite for real estate investment trusts (REITs), which provide “a good entry point for people who want to invest in the commercial and industrial real estate space but don’t necessarily want the headache of direct investment.”
E-commerce and warehouse space
You can thank the COVID-19 pandemic for propelling demand for industrial land and warehouse space, especially in suburban areas outside Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver, as well as in secondary markets such as London and Waterloo, Ont., Lethbridge and Red Deer, Alta., and Kelowna, B.C.
There are two reasons: the explosion in e-commerce and disrupted supply chains.
More online shopping means more warehouse demand. And disrupted supply chains meant retailers were compelled to shift from the just-in-time delivery model to warehousing goods to ensure consistent and reliable supply to their stores, Tehranchian explains: “So many companies are competing for industrial space, especially warehouses. It’s a long-term trend that’s not going to go away.“
Demand for industrial land is so intense that Fieder says developers “are looking in the suburbs for redevelopment opportunities, such as 20- or 30-year-old office buildings with lots of outdoor surface parking space.”
Demand for rental properties rises
“We’re seeing baby boomers choosing to downsize and move into rental properties, and their parents are moving into long-term care facilities,” says Isaacs. “Even though the spreads have become compressed in multifamily properties in major cities like Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal, I think there’s very strong investment [potential] there because of the remote working phenomenon and the number of immigrants expected to live in major centres within the next few years.”
The remote working phenomenon has made housing less affordable, which has in turn increased the demand for rental properties, she explains.
Wealth advisors are bullish on commercial real estate for the remainder of this year.
While the big story is inflation, Isaacs expects industrial and multifamily real estate to have a good year, although office and retail may not see robust recovery until later this year or early 2023. “I don’t see rising interest rates as being a headwind to real estate. I think a bigger impact could be a slowing of economic growth in general.”
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