Jim Grubman can’t help himself. When the veteran family wealth consultant and author brings up total U.S. household net worth, he launches into his best “Dr. Evil” impression popularized by the Austin Powers film franchise.
“It’s like you need to do the Mike Myers little-pinky-by-the-side-of-your-mouth thing,” he says. “One hundred and sixty trillion dollars!”
To be sure, that number is impressive. But so is the amount of estimated assets that will ultimately be transferred from that gargantuan pot to younger generations in the coming years, mostly through inheritances. While headlines trumpet the rapidly impending multi-trillion dollar estate handover between North American baby boomers and their offspring—dubbed “the Great Wealth Transfer”—the real story behind who will benefit and how is decidedly more nuanced.
The typical explanation of the Great Wealth Transfer and its expected effects on society goes like this: Boomers older than 65 have amassed the greatest amount of wealth in history and are starting to pass along that fortune to the next generation. Their financial advisors had better be ready.
But the amount that Gen X-ers and millennials will inherit depends on which report you read. And most of it will be concentrated among the top percentage of North American wealthy families amid a stark gap in wealth.
Also, the transfer amounts will be reduced, in the U.S. at least, by gift and property transfer taxes upon death. Then, on both sides of the border, some money will also go to philanthropic causes. Whatever is left over goes to the heirs.
Or will it? The average total debt of those 65 and older in Canada is $127,000, according to Statistics Canada, and a growing number of seniors still hold mortgage debt. So any windfall may already be spoken for.
If these diminishing inheritance amounts don’t seem to square with how recorded wealth continues to massively increase year over year, Boston-based Grubman can explain.
He first pulls out a couple of elementary school math terms: numerators and denominators. While the numerator sounds impressive—what people will inherit each year—the denominator’s total amount grows, too. In other words, the percentage of wealth changing hands is proportional to the growing base rate.
“The pattern of inheritance is staying relatively the same. It’s just that wealth has grown tremendously,” he explains.
Compare today’s list of billionaires to those of the past. In 1999, Bill Gates was the world’s richest person with US$68 billion. Today, Elon Musk’s net worth is estimated at US$344 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
In Canada, the gap in the share of disposable income between the country’s richest and poorest citizens isn’t as stark as in the U.S., but it still grew to 47 percentage points in 2024, the widest ever recorded by Statistics Canada. It was mostly driven by investment returns for the top 20 per cent of Canadian earners.
Concentrated wealth means most financial advisors—even those who work with relatively wealthy families—may not see much of an uptick in estate work.
“Your millionaire next door is not going to be seeing this. All the hype about $15 trillion coming to your neighbourhood next week is ridiculous,” says Grubman. “It’s that one family office working with the Musks of the world that will have the windfall.”
Chris Gandhu, partner and leader of the KPMG family office team in Calgary, agrees that the wealth transfer is a gradual, complex process concentrated among the top percentage of wealthy families. Anecdotally, he has seen it play out. The numbers are large, but not moving all it once.
“The numbers are a lot more meaningful for the top 3, 5 or 10 per cent of the population,” he says. “And it’s not like every individual has an on-off switch. We’re not all going to kick the bucket at the same time.”
It’s also important to remember that a windfall in the UHNW space looks very different than one for average Canadians. Gifts of liquid cash? Forget it. Family office professionals know that residential and commercial real estate can make up the bulk of an inheritance along with an active family business, plus some art and collectibles.
“For high-net-worth families, it’s not necessarily a windfall. It’s more of a generational shift in stewardship,” says Nizam Shajani, a tax and assurance partner in Alberta, with offices in Calgary, Edmonton and Red Deer.
Who runs the business when the founder is gone? Who gets to keep the flat in London, the family retreat in Muskoka or the penthouse condo in Dubai? How can the next generation ensure the grandchildren don’t wind up entitled? At this level, wealth transfer is not just about the money but about governance, family goals and preserving legacy across generations.
How ultra-wealthy families dole out their assets can be complex, too. Trusts and staggered giving are popular choices for those leaving their assets behind.
“Sudden and significant wealth: It’s like being hit by a rock,” says Brad Jesson, vice president, family office advisory, at Northwood Family Office in Toronto. “We’ve seen it where people have inherited a significant amount of capital without the proper trust structure, and it was completely overwhelming for them.”
He recommends staggering payments so they correspond with life’s milestones: weddings, home purchases, births and private school. This process avoids making heirs dependent on monthly stipends.
Fostering a stewardship mindset in the next generation takes work, though, and families must be willing to put in the time talking it out with advisors in the room. Jesson says the process can take between 12 and 36 months to get it right. There’s open conversation, a focus on practical considerations, and values and legacy work.
“It doesn’t matter if you’re leaving a dollar, $10 million, $100 million or a billion,” he says. “It’s really about the readiness and preparedness of the recipient.”
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