The economic hits keep coming, from inflation to sinking stocks to a deflating housing market. But how are high-net-worth families feeling about their portfolios as we limp toward 2023? With millions on the line, are they feeling as uncertain as everyone else?
We asked three family-office experts about wealthy families’ sentiments and what they’re doing to weather the storm. Hint: The economy is likely to get worse before it gets better. But when it does? They’re getting ready to pounce.
Dan Riverso, chief executive officer and chief investment officer, Jesselton Capital Management Inc., Toronto
Speaking to other people in the industry, there’s some pessimism. Even if you remove the emotion from it, you just have to look at the data to understand why. The yield curve typically inverts before a recession – and it’s now inverted. Consumer spending is up, but most people have been taking on more debt to fund their lifestyles due to inflation. The Federal Reserve might be slowing the pace of rate increases, but as rates go higher, something is likely to crack.
But it’s not just about the portfolio for wealthy individuals. Most of these families have operating companies to worry about as well, typically the largest portion of their wealth – unless they’ve had a massive liquidity event. They know how inflation is hurting them, whether it’s the cost of inputs or maybe consumer spending is slowing down their revenue.
We’re really at that stage – plus the yield curve is flashing a big, red warning sign saying, ‘A recession is coming.’ The question is, how bad does it get?
High-net-worth families are fazed by all of this. Look, just because you’ve got millions of dollars doesn’t mean you can’t get fazed. Money is a psychological thing. If you’ve got $10,000 and you lose a thousand, it’s going to hurt. But if you have $10 million and you lose a million, the mental impact is still exactly the same.
I get the sense that people are in wait-and-see mode, or they’re really worried there’s another shoe to drop. They might not know what that’s going to be, but they know something is about to happen.
Greg Rodger, chief investment officer and principal, HighView Financial Group, Oakville, Ont.
How investors are reacting really depends on how they were invested coming into this year.
Nobody likes to see negative returns, that’s for sure. However, those who really drank the Kool-Aid and believed growth stocks – which had outperformed for most of the past 15 years – were really the only way to invest, they’re getting hammered this year. They are feeling it hard and realizing they’re not getting a lot of dividend income off of those investments.
I think what has shocked a lot of people, though, is the performance of bonds. Finally now we’re seeing bond portfolios with yields to maturity at five per cent or more. We haven’t seen that in over a decade. I think some investors are saying, ‘Hmm. I know bond prices have started falling. Maybe they’re starting to make sense now.’
Everybody is different, but I would say there are a number of investors who have realized the importance of having more of a balance to their portfolio – and I’m not just talking stocks and bonds. I’m talking other kinds of investments and adopting that focus on cash generation in their portfolios.
Alternative investments have gotten a renewed focus this year. Giving ourselves a little plug here – most of our clients had significant exposure to alternative investments. But you’ve got to be super careful with alternatives because there’s the good, the bad and the ugly out there. We’ve seen the fiasco with FTX recently and the decline in crypto values. But when I say ‘alternatives,’ I mean income-producing commercial real estate and private debt instruments. You’ve got to be very careful on the due diligence.
We’ve always focused on cash-yielding investments, whether that be stocks, bonds or alternatives. It’s all about the cash flow because it provides some comfort in challenging times like this. Prices might be down temporarily, but you still have the cash income coming in. Investors who haven’t been invested that way in the past are starting to look at that option.
Thane Stenner, senior portfolio manager and senior wealth advisor, Stenner Wealth Partners+ of Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management, Vancouver
We’re developing our shopping list of things we’d like to own and like to buy, but we’re only nibbling at this point. We’re not taking bigger positions. In fact, right now, we’re 55 per cent cash, which is extremely high. Normally we would have between five to 10 per cent cash.
It’s been a bad year for a lot of investors. The discretionary portfolios we manage were actually flat year-to-date, which is kind of remarkable. It’s probably been the busiest year we’ve had – just to break even. It’s weird. We’ve done a lot of paddling under the surface, but we’re thankful for where we’re at, versus being down 20, 30 or 40 per cent like some investors are.
We’re doing a lot of research, analyst calls and portfolio manager calls. There are opportunities, but it’s not the same game plan as what it was over the last five or 10 years. We work with households with at least $10 million-plus in investments and at least $25 million in net worth. Half are family offices and the others are entrepreneurial wealth business owners. I’m sensing family offices are looking for opportunities as well.
We’ve been a big proponent of alternative investments for 15 years now, and there are some good opportunities in alternatives, which includes hedge funds, private equity, venture capital, secondaries and infrastructure. The average client portfolio in Canada has between one and three per cent in alternatives. We’re at about 30 per cent.
Responses have been lightly edited and condensed.
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