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Outlook 2025: Four experts see a bumpy year ahead in philanthropic giving

As the number of Canadian donors shrinks, a look at the issues and how they could be solved

It’s been a year of concerning trends for charitable giving in Canada, with more bumps ahead for 2025.

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Consider the federal government’s alternative minimum tax, the lack of Canadian resources supporting philanthropy and the impact of the American election, just to name a few.

More worrying still, the number of Canadians making charitable donations declined for the 11th year, according to the 2024 Giving Report from CanadaHelps. A myriad of issues are to blame, including financial strain and a growing generational divide when it comes to giving. Furthermore, the number of Canadians seeking help from charities to meet essential needs rose to one in five. 

If the economy takes a downturn due to U.S. president-elect Donald Trump’s tariff threats, the need will be greater than ever.

So, what’s in store for 2025? We spoke with four experts who offered differing perspectives on the year past and what to expect next.

John Bromley, founder and CEO, Charitable Impact, Vancouver

John Bromley

In his 20 years in philanthropy, John Bromley has observed some consistent and evolving trends. Peoples’ motivations for giving remain much the same—community-minded benevolence, personal reasons related to a cause, tax considerations—but the way they give is changing.  

“I think 2024 put the ‘trust-based unrestricted giving’ conversation on the table,” he says, referring to an approach that enables nonprofits to deploy funding where they see fit by encouraging giving that is not restricted by the giver in scope or direction.

“That’s totally not new to anybody in philanthropy. What’s new is that now people are talking about it,” Bromley adds.  

He believes trust-based giving can lead to more effective and impactful philanthropy, reducing administrative costs by allowing charities to focus on their missions and use donated funds in the most effective way possible.

That doesn’t mean he’s not in favour of accountability, transparency and reporting, but he says trust-based philanthropy is more effective because “there’s not as much wasted time and energy and all the things that don’t add value to getting that sandwich to the hungry person.”

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While he worries the trend could be fleeting, the positive is that if more donors start to understand why trust-based giving is more effective, it will result in more unrestricted gifts.

“The reason I’m so pro-trust-based philanthropy is because it’s arguably one of the most profound solutions to re-engaging people in giving,” Bromley adds. “If donors become more knowledgeable and engaged, they will be better equipped to assess which charities they can truly trust with their donations.

“But the lack of formal education and resources available for Canadians to learn about effective and impactful giving is a significant barrier,” he says, and more education about giving, rather than a reliance on reactive fundraising, would be beneficial.

That also applies to advisors, he adds, such as “lawyers and accountants, who are presumably wonderful people but who don’t have any charity literacy, and if they do, it’s more tax literacy, so oftentimes they can make it worse.” These advisors might feel beholden to their wealthy clients and are more likely to impose restrictions and requirements on charities.

Looking ahead, Bromley predicts change will come with generational changes, as millennials and other young donors may be more inclined toward trust-based giving compared with older, more established donors.

“People’s giving habits and preferences tend to be ingrained and slow to change,” he says. “The real change may take five to 10 years to materialize.”

Bruce MacDonald, president and CEO, Imagine Canada, Toronto

Giving in Canada is becoming more concentrated among a smaller number of people. The number of donors is declining, with older, affluent people contributing significantly, says Bruce MacDonald.

Less than one per cent of individual donors now initiate 38 per cent of all giving, based on federal data released earlier this year that reflects numbers for 2022.

The challenge is there’s no source of real-time data around giving, says MacDonald.

“However, this is a 30-year trend. What we don’t know is how donor patterns will change as older donors pass on and wealth transfers are made to their now-middle-aged children. Will those middle-aged children follow the same pattern of generosity and philanthropy their parents and grandparents did?”

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Bruce MacDonald

MacDonald also notes that people who attend a place of worship regularly give twice as much as secular Canadians. But that landscape is changing too, he says, shifting toward more secular, cause-driven, mission-focused philanthropy, particularly among younger generations.

“Looking ahead, the question is, how do we engage young people in causes so that they feel connected to communities?” he asks. “So that at a future time in their lives, when they’re financially able to be donors, they don’t feel this huge sense of disconnect from the philanthropic sector?”

The alternative minimum tax (AMT) is another worry. MacDonald believes it will have a greater impact than the government’s initial estimates.

“We’re hearing from our member organizations that donors were already adjusting their behaviour in anticipation of this tax,” MacDonald says. “It’s too early to see the data, but there’s a concern this tax measure will disincentivize some and result in a reduced contribution to organizations.”

The other big wild card in 2025 will be the Canadian federal election. “Funding programs will be majorly affected if there is a change in government federally,” he says.

MacDonald also worries about the potential impact of global instability and economic changes on charitable giving.

“If there are significant tariffs on exported Canadian goods into the U.S., we may see a decline in exports, and then the ripple effect starts. People lose their jobs, so they don’t have as much money.

“Demand for charitable services goes up and companies are not as generous because their profits are being negatively affected.”

Susan Phillips, professor of philanthropy and nonprofit leadership, Carleton University, Ottawa

Canada is the only G7 country without a research facility dedicated to philanthropy, so Susan Phillips and her colleagues and advisors at Carleton University have been working to establish one to better support Canadian philanthropy and charities.

While they don’t yet have funding for the centre, Phillips says they’re close to funding for the first Chair in Philanthropy.

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Susan Phillips

Phillips, who led the creation of Canada’s only graduate degree program in Philanthropy and Nonprofit Leadership at Carleton, says she’s seen enormous changes in the philanthropic sector in Canada over the past year.

“We’re seeing charities close,” says Phillips. “We’re seeing all kinds of churches close. Additionally, a wide variety of charities that were in financial trouble before the pandemic couldn’t hang on any longer.”

Foundations large and small are also saying that they want to do more, she adds, but they don’t know how to diversify or how to best direct that bigger gift.

“We could bridge the information gap and make data and knowledge more accessible to donors and advisors,” she says. “We just need to make it available in an easily digested, easily accessible form.”

According to Phillips’s research, 142 gifts of more than $10 million each were given in Canada from 2021 to 2024, mostly to hospitals and healthcare research.

“I think we’ll see a continuation of very large gifts because there is an accumulation of wealth in Canada,” Phillips adds.

“Another big change is the growing importance of women in philanthropy. Women have always been important as donors, volunteers and staff in charities, but increasingly women have independent wealth and will inherit wealth horizontally from their spouses.”

Some of the largest foundations are now led by women, she adds, “so all those things are starting to come together.”

Kathleen Provost, vice-president of philanthropy and communications for United for Literacy, Toronto

Formerly known as Frontier College, United for Literacy has been delivering literacy programs in communities across Canada for 125 years. But fundraising has become challenging, Kathleen Provost says, as it transitions from traditional grant-based philanthropy to trust-based relationships.

“We’re still relying on the traditional funding formula, which is important and part of what we do, but we’re learning how to do trust philanthropy, which looks different, so there’s uncertainty about how we go forward,” says Provost. “There’s a bit of fatigue—like we’ve plateaued—and a sense that the old ways of doing things aren’t working as effectively.  

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“We have to rewrite the future,” she adds.

Kathleen Provost

The trust-based approach is seen as a philosophical shift as the organization moves away from rigid reporting requirements toward more collaborative, flexible relationships between funders and recipients.

“Donors are becoming more educated and sophisticated, wanting to be more actively involved and have direct impact, rather than just donating,” says Provost. “There’s less interest in just feeling good about giving, and more focus on working together to achieve measurable results.”

There is still reporting, she adds, “but the reporting could sometimes be as simple as a visit on-site—it’s about ‘come and see the impact.’”

United for Literacy still meets with donors, but now they work with advisors and build relationships with them as well, she adds.

Provost sees long-term sustainability as the biggest advantage of building trust-based relationships.

“The funder better understands about the work being done, so they want to remain a partner,” says Provost. “I think it’s going to become much more of a community rather than a top-down exchange. We’re at a great moment in philanthropy because we have an opportunity to change. Going back is not an option.”

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